Mindanao - Prospects for peace in the southern Philippines dimmed after the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the government failed to finalise a key agreement on an expanded Muslim homeland.
In November 2007, government peace negotiators and the MILF leadership had broken a year-long impasse on an expanded ancestral domain, an autonomous Moro homeland (Bangsamoro) for Mindanao`s three million Muslims. However last-minute revisions in the draft agreement by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo`s advisers scuttled the mid-December 2007 talks.
With the unexpected deadlock, some MILF leaders have threatened to withdraw from the peace talks unless the government abides by the draft agreement on ancestral domain.
Both sides have already agreed on security, and rehabilitation and development measures in the draft agreement, but the MILF claims the government has "reneged from the consensus points" on the four sections on ancestral domain (concept, resources, territory and governance), which had been agreed and signed during previous talks. The MILF accused the government of introducing extraneous matters not previously discussed.
When the draft agreement was submitted to President Gloria Arroyo`s cabinet after the exploratory talks, new elements were added, including subjecting the BJE to undefined "constitutional processes". The MILF objected to this phrase, fearing it would only lead to a reduction of the size of the proposed Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE), similar to the outcomes of the 1976 and 1996 peace agreements.
In response to the MILF`s decision not to attend the 15-17 December peace talks, Presidential Peace Adviser Jesus Dureza said the government was considering amending the constitution to allow the establishment of a Bangsamoro federal state in Mindanao. But the MILF claims this had already been offered by the government in 2005 and rejected by the separatists.
The chances for a resumption, much less a conclusion of peace negotiations with the MILF, appear remote given that Arroyo has only two-and-a-half years left in her term - a political reality that is compounded by her weak political position.
Reconciling the BJE with the existing Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) will prove to be difficult, especially as the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) has argued that any peace accord regarding the issue of a Muslim homeland between the MILF and the government would violate their own 1996 peace agreement with Manila. Therefore, any agreement between the government and the MILF could lead to a spike in violence in the southern Philippines.
Source: www.janes.com (25 Januari 2008)
